Stephen: Historian, oddsmakers predict Biden to beat Trump
A history professor who has accurately predicted every presidential race since 1984 says President Donald Trump will lose the 2020 election. As CNN reports, historian Allan Lichtman uses his “13 keys” system to make his predictions. The “13 keys” system includes factors like the economy, charisma, social unrest and scandals–and questions can be answered as either true or false. Lichtman told CNN definitively, “The keys predict that Donald Trump will lose the White House this year.”
He added, “The secret is keeping your eye on the big picture of incumbent strength and performance. And don’t pay any attention to the polls, the pundits, the day-to-day ups and downs of the campaign. And that’s what the keys gauge. The big picture.”
It’s worth noting that while Lichtman predicted Al Gore would win the 2000 election, Gore did win the popular vote before the Supreme Court intervened to stop the recount for Florida’s electoral votes. Thus Gore lost the presidency to George W. Bush. Meanwhile, the betting markets are also pointing toward a Trump loss. According to Reuters, British betting company Ladbrokes Coral Group gives Biden a 61% win-chance and Trump 36%. And New Zealand-based prediction market PredictIt has Biden leading Trump by 59 cents-to-43 cents.